Really interesting find. Just going thru is bio. I am sure that Turchin and other writers on the decline of Empires today are well read and this gentleman wasn’t a normie. Rhodes Scholar. In one of his books, he does a complete survey of all the great Greek and Roman philosophers. Nice!
Based on his evolution of decline, looks like US and Europe in Stage 4… Reign of Terror.
And we’re all waiting for the Thermidorian stage. Radicals evaporate.
- Old Regime / Preliminary Stage — Structural weaknesses, economic strain on the state, intellectual discontent, and growing opposition. The government appears inefficient and loses legitimacy.
- First Stages / Rule of the Moderates — Revolutionaries overthrow the old order. A “honeymoon” period follows with hope, moderate reforms, and euphoria. Moderates (e.g., Girondins in France, Provisional Government in Russia) take power but struggle with governance, finances, and rising demands.
- Accession of the Extremists / Radical Phase — Moderates fail to satisfy radicals or control events. More extreme groups seize power (Jacobins, Bolsheviks). This leads to centralization, purges, and radical attempts to remake society.
- Reign of Terror and Virtue — Crisis stage marked by violence, executions, ideological fervor, and efforts to enforce “virtue” (e.g., French Terror, Russian Red Terror). War (foreign or civil) often intensifies this phase.
- Thermidorian Reaction — Exhaustion sets in. The terror eases, radicals lose ground, and a more stable (often authoritarian) order emerges. This phase features a “convalescence” with dictatorship or strongman rule (Cromwell, Napoleon, Stalin; Washington is a milder American parallel).
And according to this archetypical process, we’re due for a dictator. The US Empire is young, only 250 years compared to most empires but within the span of a Chinese dynasty and my theory has been we’re moving into a new dynasty. Some believe we reboot, and the country is reborn.
The best part of the exhaustion phase, and possibility of a dictator showing up is that the masses will support it’s rise. You know how much people love a capable authority. People aren’t very good at looking under the hood. They accept a man at his word.
I had my eyes on Vivek Ramaswamy being that kind of guy. Smooth talker. Said all the right things. People person. Exactly the kind of person that would fool you and it ended up, Vivek raised all the money needed to lose in a cinematic blowout. His campaigns purpose was to raise so much money, lock up all the consulting shops, tv ad buys, get the entire eGOP establishment and its local sycophants committed to his campaign. They even darkened his skin in his ads to make him look lower echelon. He was part of the plan. He ended up being a diversity guy. Didn’t see that coming eh?
The American voters. Conservative or LIberals will vote for whomever they tell you to vote. Ever see a state hypnotist work? Doesn’t take long before everyone on stage is dancing like a monkey. And that’s how the empire declines.
George Washington was my man. Not a great public speaker. He dental problems, false teeth, didn’t speak for more than 10 minutes (my kind of politician)soft, high-pitched, and somewhat weak/breathy voice based on all written accounts. Couldn’t speak off the cuff. Trump would have wiped the floor with him in a debate. But he had presence.
By the Constitutional Convention, he was old, tired, and beaten up. But they got him to come because his presence was absolutely necessary.
When silence speaks louder than words.
With all due respect, I don’t think Americans are that smart to elect someone like Washington in our modern age. They want polish, political slogans…baaah.
Give me a guy with unkempt hair, who stutters but has character and wisdom.