Originally published at: TIDBIT: IS THE BUBBLE ABOUT TO BURST?
Apropos of today’s main blog, consider this story shared by K.M. (and by the way, I regard this story as so important I’m also placing it in this week’s honourable mentions in case there are people who ignore the “Tidbits”: 8 Things That Don’t Add Up About Anthropic’s IPO
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I do hope so, need a bigger floppy disk drive 
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probably now its in the category of TooBigToFail players, coz currently seems majority if not whole financial [1][1] also administrative [2][2] and business systems [3][3][3][3] are dependent from it, so either will be consolidated and/or bailed out if crumble!?, altho it could be pumped also like panic button, so all would be forced towards full’digital’economy as exit strategy!?
- such confidence cant emerge by accident, hm, guess it could also secure better position in criminal ways, eg. blackmailing various state players, by flushing own poison, to which would later offer own remedies, what even without companys knowledge can happen [4]
not that bubble is not possible, actually many indicators suggest eventual high probability [5] especially if the strongest crypto keys are broken ahead [6][6-4] so the bubble if starts bubbling will be pretty bumpy on all levels not just in the a.i. realm!, but dont think anthropic would be the trigger, more probably skewed panic just like before the great depression!?, I’ve forgot we can be as well the hype that by wrong variables can roll wrong avalanche, eg. taking away the investors peace if explain to them that nothing is fix in their strategies, solely coz exist various math systems that can wipe them out mids given casino [7][7] especially the small or individual players [8] and add to that some esotery too [9][9-2] and voilla out of the box problem that once is obvious the systems overall are overheating, then at least Agrarian Mindset individually or collectively should be certain risk management for any case total brutal economic scenario [10]
I can’t find any information if they have a CAIO, Chief A.I. Officer. I wonder if that is why Anthropics bubble is going to burst.
I’ve edited the previous post with extra useful points … but the next one would be by JPFs will … i.e. how eventual financial bubble would be evaded by employing Geometric Algebra as investing kick …
so even anthropic would crumble anyhow, the bubble can be reshaped by this logic instantly, evading whatever total market fail … also, in the link its nicely explained why exist such disproportional real vs potential value of companies on the market …
If you take all the war cycles, 4th turning cycles (Straus and Howe), minor business cycles (Kitchin, Juglar, Berry) K-Waves, K-seasons, yeah I know sounds like Latin with Greek mixed in, and you attempt to map all of this into a coherent picture, where each of those major and minor turnings, times something, then NO. The bubble is not about to burst.
Right click image for a closer look. Inspect the past.
Find a line that missed a turn?
It just feels that way because sentiment is at an ebb. 5,000 stocks are down 20%+ from their 52-week highs. Nearly 4,000 are down 40%+.
When pundits cried on national TV saying they lost everything do the opposite by buying the bottom. When everyone FOMO you know what to do. Learn to drive it
When everyone panic who was wishing stocks were cheaper, when the time arrives, they’ll be too scared to buy.
And it gets crazier…
1170-2032 800Y Millennial cycle 1170 1453 1776-2032 300Y LT Macro 1942-2032 Grand super cycle
Long term macro cycle can’t be manipulated. Even when short term business cycle is manipulated.
SpaceX isn’t a rocket company but an interplanetary company ! 
… SpaceX bankrupt when Earth invade Mars
, SpaceX, Tesla/Optimus, and Musk
The first Martian Emperor has spoken
Imagine if all Elon Musk’s companies merge under one parent company !
Combine the companies Tesla plus SpaceX=$MUSK 3.37 Trillion
Enjoy the ride. Music doesn’t stop until the Fat lady sings.
The game is not rigged but being rigged is the game
The day Elon Musk on the cover you know what to do. Every time he was on the cover, 2014 and 2015, Tesla almost went bankrupt. Third time will be the charm
Imagine when Tesla Optimus droid service in Mars starts 2029 "Face with tears of joy
Literally no one else here believes me. mic drop moment still yet to come.
1921/2024 Silent Depression FED cuts rate
1926/2029 Mortgage mania housing peaked
1929/2032 Great Depression FED cuts to 0%
Bubble pops when everyone is in. Everyone NOT in. Max Exhuberance still yet to come
History repeats. Would it be different this time?
18.6 real estate cycle was tracked by the ancients. They built observatories that tracked real estate. The windows aren’t for looking out on a rainy day. They are timing mechanisms.
Were they attempting to time market tops? Or they knew that a Zeitgiest a turning was happening before anybody else saw it coming?
Ilhan was the first…Now Pence… Thinking 3D means unrelated patterns seem unrelated. Quantam physics says all patterns are related.
Ilhan going down. Now Pence,
This isn’t a political statement. It’s natural law in action. Get your popcorn because it’s just starting. Watch Tim Waltz Minneapolis and Mandami NY. The walk of shame is coming. A top will be timed by a chain of corruption. Would it be different this time?
Trump couldn’t release Epstein documents. He would have crashed the stock market and would have revealed too much about the World Wide Intelligence Agencies.
These punks are nobodies. Disposable. He knows you’re unhappy. He’s gonna fix a few things.
They’ll be talking about it after it happens. So passe of society. Natural law cloaked/hidden in bible. Kept away from the masses. They wrote Canon law to divert your attention.
… see “Will the Future be Like the Past?” by Frederick L. Will
and “The Logical Problem of Induction” by Georg Henrik von Wright.
“Man does not live by Induction alone”. - said by some famous philosopher somewhere at some time in history.
Glad you didn’t choose Humes book on Logical induction. If he followed his own theories in real life, he’d be broke.
Pure logic by itself is powerless to guide action about the future or the unobserved.
You can’t insist on deductive certainty before acting, you would be paralyzed taking any action in the future. You would have no certainty that the sun would rise, food would grow. You would never drive over bridge. You would have to resign your position as head of the chemistry department because after 1000 experiments mixing bleach and ammonia, you still would have no confidence that the next test would produce noxious fumes.
Science, technology, medicine and everyday survival would be impossible. And we would have no basis for preferring a well tested theory over a wild speculation.
Von Wright is an easier bar.
If the cycle outperforms after known effects are removed, scales with confluence, and holds up out of sample and across sub-periods, it has met von Wright’s standard. That doesn’t make it certain. It means the remaining doubt is only the irreducible uncertainty that applies to every empirical claim. That’s the most anyone can ask of a cycle, and it’s a far stronger position
What you’re all witnessing in real time is a phenomena that has been studied, quantified.
It’s called the Phenomena of Autumn Panics.
Panics are an international phenomena. All the markets across the world are synced. A butterfly flapped her wings in Brazil. Indonesia stock market is crashing.
If I take all the best fitting cycles of past market behavior, and reduce it to one composite cycle, I have a composite cycles that exceeds 80% accuracy. You’ll note almost ALL probabilities were pointing to the same conclusion. Autumn Panic in October. I used the standard of reasonableness where the odds were stacked in my favor to go short.
I’d also suggest that at least 60% of the posts on this forum and on social media are people predicting the future. That’s what a prepper does. Can we list all the predictions that are on the table that have been posted here?
It’s human nature to predict the future. Our brains aren’t very good at staying in the moment. We are a neurotic creature. How many of the thousands of predictions are based on any model other than “this guys says it will be and I trust this guy?” A few? A Modest number? Most?
Find a logic book in your collection that shows that rising prices + high valuations alone do not equal a bubble.
Maybe a book on market logic would be a better fit for the discussion?
I know, I know… YUK…
The question worth asking are how reliable have company valuations in the past been at forecasting a market event in the future vs market timing which actually go back to Babylon
WE GOT DATA. They have been carving this stuff into rocks since forever.
A proper assessment requires examining the quality and structure of the price advance through a Dow Theory / market-process lens. Sentiment and valuation can support the analysis, but they should not lead it.
Why do I think there will be buyers at the bottom here? Because HUMAN NATURE doesn’t change
Regency bias is when people give disproportionate weight to the most recent information when forming judgments, often ignoring older but more representative evidence.
The good news is soon enough, we’ll know which theory will be proven right.
November low. Rally into 1st Quarter 2027. And then revisit the question. Is the top in?
FASB-56 takes care of any short or long term trends. In a global war USA vs rest of the world no need for black-mail like Epstein or mini nukes. American establishment is on board with all their hands and feet.
Although I don’t doubt that Trump is being threatened with them(nukes), but reasons remain elusive for now. ( vide Dr. Farrell blog this week)
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Ok, but I would note just two things. The conclusion about FASB differs from those who spent their entire lives studying this stuff including Schumpeter and the conclusion that Dr. Farrell reached in the Babylon Bankster based off the research he did with Dewey, Schumpeter and others. They can manipulate the cycle for a time, but they can’t manipulate the destination. We call it painting a chart and we can see the players in the wings before they act.
I acknowledge this doesn’t feel intuitive or self evident. The proof is only in understanding the language of the numbers which is beyond the keel or interest of this community.
Re: Trump… I haven’t deviated from Scott Adams assertion before he passed that the repercussions of a release would be detrimental to society. The other proposition would be, he is covering up for himself. I think he’s a horn dog but I don’t have proof that he’s lying about it. He really should try hiring a brunette next go around.
Body language panel did a full analysis of his testimony against the woman who accused him of rape. Including that guy Charles that Beaver recently posted. Charles has serious chops in reading human behavior. They found no indications of him lying. If true, there is an opposing team that wants him gone.
The Trump triangle with his hands is problematic. I accepted the Body language’s analysis that it was a trained body behavior to do in the public until I saw his son flashing it at the inauguration and his wife quickly hitting his arms down. Don’t do that here.
I too have jumped on the band wagon against trump for individual actions. And quite honestly, his day to day rhetoric is just annoying now. But that’s personal.
If we temporarily accept that there is something that would have caved in society by revealing it, I want to watch if he starts doing the thing that everyone thinks he’s not going to do.
The cycles, now thru 2028, support that people in high political positions in 7 countries will start to be taken down.
The reason I can lump this in on a discussion about bubbles is because Dewey’s findings were that unlike things share similar cycles. The procreation cycle of salmon in a river, might be the same as some geopolitical or economic cycle because that’s how nature works. Just as some might attempt to time the market based on their wifes monthly cycle if they are recognizing a connecting pattern.
No need to dwell on Epstein debacle. It is a side show. Most of the entire world knows( thank you internet) that all the elites are corrupted beyond repair. Revealing the list would not trigger market collapse, imo.
No elites whether Russian, Chinese or American or anywhere else in the world want market downturn. They have cornered themselves.
Only one class is ok with market collapse and ultimately civilization demise: Breakaways.
Technological advances ( including radiation clean ups after nuclear apocalypse) within Breakaways are most likely to that degree, that it would allow them to start fresh here on earth. No need to seek another planet.
As CAF aptly observed during the Covid times Breakaways broke in into officialdom( economy wise), most likely threatening Trump with mini nukes for the first time, if not allowed( Gen. Milly on Apr 1st 2020 “you are not getting in” threat did not work out, again imo) and for the first time in decades we have experienced hyperinflation with all the assets classes being bought by Breakaways with our money(printing press).
Dr. Farrell blog this week, ma be the most consequential of entire year.
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Yes, I read that. Reminds me of the good ole days.
Project Sapphire (1994) the US secretly airlifted about 600 kg of highly enriched uranium out of an inadequately guarded plant in Kazakhstan.
Semipalatinsk (1996–2012) a covert US-Russian-Kazakh operation sealed off plutonium residue left in old test tunnels that scavengers had been digging into.
Megatons to Megawatts (1993–2013) 500 tonnes of Russian weapons uranium, the equivalent of roughly 20,000 warheads, was down blended into US reactor fuel.
Rumor has it. There are still missing nukes from the ex Soviet Unions. Just went missing.
Figures it happened near Amherst MA. My old college town. Once a marxist safe haven. Always a marxist safe haven. One of the colleges went out of business they were so woke. Hampshire college.
An X factor event is on my radar. I don’t know what it is that’s why it’s an X factor and I have my reasons. So every event like this should be monitored. Not that any of us can do anything about it.
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A few questions from one unfamiliar with the literature of cyclic prediction:
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In theological circles there is often found the habit of reusing previously fulfilled “prophesy”. Could it not be the case that predictions based on previous cycles (all of which appear to have been comprised of vastly dissimilar components within vastly different social contexts) be understood as some socio-economic version of the reusing of previously fulfilled “prophesy”?
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What assumption(s) about time are there (if any) in attempting cyclic prediction?
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What might be the argument that differentiates the work of current cyclic predictors from the work of Michel Gauquelin. et al. (these folks wanted to see if they could find a scientific / statistical / mathematical basis for the claims of astrology)? Other than current cyclic predictors having access to greater quantities of data and models of interpretation due to more powerful compute (for lack of a better word) the goals of Gauquelin and current cyclic predictors appear similar. … … are there “cosmic clocks” (again, for lack of a better term) for at least some phenomena?
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What are the Deterministic concerns or conclusions (if any) of those working in the area of cyclic prediction?
Let me think about all of this! It’s a lot to contemplate and type。 I don’t mind. Just want to contemplate it. You obviously read all the books on logic, syllogism, doxa and all that hard stuff. People usually don’t ask these type of questions without that background . It’s the kind of hard questions people exchange in our ancient writings class. Aristotle Plato type stuff.
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It just dawn on me, that maybe one of objectives of dismantling Soviet Union was to getting some of their nuclear capabilities unaccounted for, for future use all over the world.
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It’s possible. Fair proposition.
Scarmoge: I have all the answers in my head. Good questions. Fair. I wish there was an invention that I could control that could take my thoughts and write them out. That might be misused. So maybe this weekend or this week, I’ll write it out. In the subscribers section.
In the big picture, I’m nobody. I don’t seek influence over people. I don’t seek alot of people watching me and labelling myself as an expert on a subject for clicks, or monetization. But I’ve done unique research and put in alot of hard work and research.
I had ALOT of people watching me a long time ago when I did this stuff in public on social media. My idea’s were monetized by programmers without my permission. This area is filled with con artists just like every profession. The financial area, including cycles, forecasting is full of people that are less than ethical. It’s possible for people to download some of my charts and reverse engineer them with AI. The ones I put up, most of those cycles are public knowledge by other experienced forecasters, which is not a large number.
Same thing with the astrology area. Hack job after hack job. I don’t think those type of people who are both interested in this field and would steal the idea’s are on here. But you never know who is roaming around here. Probably a large lurking population.
So I’ll write this week, maybe earlier, in the subscribers section. Since some of the examples of what I do are unique.
Armstrong says he has been using AI for 20 years and all his forecasts are based on the computer. Doubtful, doubtful, doubtful. I know all his numbers and I know where they come from. I have not seen anyone, including some of the guys at Foundation of Cycles, do what I do and get the results. And i know a few of them will use stuff they didn’t come up with.
The current day Foundation of Cycles has NOTHING to do with Dewey’s original work. That organization failed two or three times. they passed Dewey’s library to new ownership. The guy who bought it seems like a decent guy. But it’s not the research foundation that it was. It’s just a bunch of independent forecasters promoting their wares. Some good, some self promoters.
Too much sweat and labor to give them stuff they didn’t earn themselves.
So later. In private membership area. I need to show evidence for it to matter at all.
@reddclay why in members are why not in this thread but in shorter context
@Scarmoge to which theology You refer
@reddclay as I am constantly parroting that the spiritual world is basis for this one, thus cycles by themselves wherever revolve cant be boxed and predicted, especially not in open system like earth where spiritual variables cant be anyhow accounted!, altho even calculating solely by observable reductionist prism, stil going in linear logic which is deweys method cant be reached precise certainty, at least that would be the logic from the next footnotes, isnt [1][1][1] as JayD would say fixed turn comes once is rigged as such [2][2] I’ll add imagine Angels can influence and rig such flow, if and only if we through our Free Will ask for, altho also Our Almighty Lord as Omnipotent Creator has Own Will so it can secure repetition whenever like wants or its Prayed for … while we can expect only extra fractal variable that it can be chased but can never mirror exact complex reflection thus reachable approximation eg. in history or life and alike vast pool of unpredictable variable by magnitude … but even with machines, when even we would secure given machine, eg. clock, we still cant predict its behavior for good and in every situation ahead [3-2][3] we can only secure partial prediction, or through longer observation, pattern that is stable and like standardized as fixed cycle, but predicting eg. weather modulation by clock ticking, that to me looks like fallacy [4] si deweys method is somehow less than effective approach, am I right, hm, prove me wrong …
… so, the plain logic for plain dewey approach is speculative by default!, finding in charts or event pattern is then almost like statistical divination mirage!, imagine predicting collapse of galaxy, can You observe conversely also collapse or emergence of atom, on top in open system, hek, per’se even in closed system the position cant be fixed, when and whether the observed depends of/on the observer and all his actions ideas will, and that by same measure to be mirrored till acceptable error in later repeated cases, on top by measuring tools which cant calculate by absolute math model, from perspective of total truth for all and everything, simply we still dont have UFT in place so how cycles would be fixed emergence!?, maybe possible, but to me dont looks like that [5] tho prove me wrong …
about armstrongian “socrates” I’ll say why people are falling to framed pitch that need actually to influence change or bring chain reaction [6] and why coz had have some special software [6-3] how so exist such naive investors, with shovel to dig then, gamblers always were depending from hints tips and even lucky hand or dice, in same manner rely on socrates too!
… so-called “Christian” Theology.