Scott Adams most likely outcome formula.
Identify the key “characters,” incentives, and constraints and what each side actually wants and is capable of doing.
Discard pure wishful thinking and cynical dismissal or rigid skepticism. Evaluate the circumstances. No opinions.
Write the script of the most probable path forward that also feels like a coherent movie
they already weight the optics of targeting a high-profile progressive Muslim congresswoman and know the risk of doing this before elections.
The setup already under way. Judicial authority, Courts issue warrants when affidavits show a fair probability that evidence of crime will be found. Omar’s district (heavily Democratic, progressive base) rallies around “persecution” narrative; she fundraises and campaigns on it. Republicans treat it as validation of long-standing claims.
judicially authorized search; prosecutors will press hard if the seized materials provide usable evidence), human/political nature (high-profile cases against members of the opposite party can still produce convictions when the evidence clears the high bar,
30 days to go through the boxes and any digital devices they took from her residence.
Someone comes out on a podium in 30 days and tells the public “we’ve gone through everything” posture that supports charging decisions (or a decision not to charge) barring unusual complexity or deliberate delay. Unless Trump pays for the overtime to go through everything in a week. And he’s gonna pay the over time.
Same pattern as the Representative William Jefferson. Decennial cycle? bingo. Color match.
Black congressman, bad business deals in AFrica, A freezer full of cash, sentenced to 13 years in federal prison, the longest sentence ever given to a U.S. congressman for bribery.
The sentiment at the time?? Nothing will happen.
18 year cycle The downfall, arrest, or hospitalization of senior political leaders, The exposure of major corruption scandals, Significant labor or union crackdowns, Banking failures or collapses
7 countries likely impacted: USA, RUSSIA, Pakistan, India, Mexico and Greece.
the downside risk to Trumpand HOmeland SEcurity to conduct a raid before election including legal response by her is too high.
United States: Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich was arrested (Dec 2008) on federal corruption charges (including attempting to sell Barack Obama’s Senate seat) and later impeached (2009). Bernie Madoff’s massive Ponzi scheme was exposed (Dec 2008); he pleaded guilty (Mar 2009) and was sentenced to 150 years.
UK MPs’ expenses scandal:Arrested / Charged / Jailed
UK 5 MPs were eventually convicted and jailed for false accounting related to their expenses claims
2 peers (House of Lords members) were also jailed: Lord Taylor of Warwick and Lord Hanningfield.
Oh yeah, Tom Holman had a sheet eating grin on tv today.
This cycle is expected to last until mid-2028. I’ve been waiting.
Also Trump knows you’re mad at him. He let Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Barack Obama walk. And crickets on Epstein scandal. He needs to earn your vote back. He knows you’ll never pull down the lever for a liberal.
I’m not a gambling man. Statistics have to be in my favor. But I’m willing to put a dollar down on this pony.
Yes, case could plateau and stall with law suits and counter prosecutions. But Trump committed. No turning back. He thinks his chances of winning are high and so do all his consultants.
here we go again…5k
