3rd highest YTD deficit in American history
Trump tariffs giving us a surplus so we can eliminate income tax for…
…oh wait.
Remember, we elected him because we were tired of increased crime, corruption and moral decay, (all of them bribery, price fixing, islands with sex trafficking etc… Immigration and migration surges, political disorder (protests and various forms of civil unrest) Wars and large scale conflicts? General cultural and spiritual anxiety.
Would this cover most of the topics of the day that are discussed here? Minus the philosophical, alchemical and occasional toe tapping video?
It’s no accident that all these things are happening at the same time. Ok… the fourth turning, and the new one everyone is hip to, the Barbault configuration now hovering over the skies. Yet with the total saturation of sooth sayers, astrologists, and experts divining the future, the masses have overlooked the greatest cycle of them all.
The Great Wave
No, not this one.
Although that one deserves some attention. Some deep concepts embedded in that mug.
This one.
‘The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History’, by David Hackett Fischer. I believe this book should be in anyone’s library that has any interest in economics/investing and history.
And as far as I know, Fischer seems to be the ONLY person to have pointed this out. Here it is and it’s most important.
It’s important because everyone is talking about it without knowing they are talking about it.
It has some profound economic implications for the entire 21st century.
In some astounding and meticulous research, published way back in 1996, Fischer found that historically – over the past 900 years or so – inflation has basically gone in four movements of prices. You had a medieval price revolution.
Then for a hundred years, prices went nowhere. Another major revolution in 16th century prices had to with a lot of money that came into Europe and Spain, particularly from the New World.
All the gold and silver pushed prices up. Exactly opposite of what gold bugs were taught to believe that gold and silver stabilized things.
After that, prices went nowhere for a hundred years. Can you say Stagflation?
Then we had an 18th century (1700’s) price revolution. Prices doubled and tripled. Then throughout the 1800s; so we’re talking from about 1820 to about 1890 or thereabouts, prices went absolutely nowhere. In fact the prices of many things were cheaper in 1890 than they were in 1820. One of the reasons that happened was all of the prodigious new inventions and the development of new energy types.
Businesses were able to invest in some amazing new technology, being the railroads, in particular. It kept a lid on prices. Are you starting to see a pattern here? David Hackett Fischer found it Here’s the implication.
After the massive inflation of the 20th century, prices went nowhere hundred years.
Most of you have a little gray hair? YOu remember buying little cartons of milk for 4 cents in school? Or an entire lunch for a dollar etc, etc, etc, etc, While we are in a period of secular inflation, eventually inflation’s pop and the entire system resets. History!
That means little or no inflation for the entire 21st century. And here we are. Think about that. It probably also means very low interest rates for decades. Since Fischer’s book of 1996, he’s been completely right.
Ok, I know there are gold bugs on this forum. And maybe a few Crypto people too. Central Banks buying gold is NOT a good sign. I have 100’s of years of data that the coin shops will never show you. It’s a roust.
When Costco sold those gold coins what did they take in exchange for it? FIAT.
When you buy an American gold or silver eagle? Who are you buying it from?
The Government and a government official nominated by POTUS to ensure you buy more.
They want you to buy gold and silver.
Fischer never found a time cycle connecting the price revolutions and either have I. And NOBODY has bothered to look so searching the web won’t get you closer. So without a time cycle, you have a possibility. One most haven’t considered.
The future doesn’t always show it’s cards but when it does, it’s not always the cards everyone thinks it’s holding.