We have those in the US too, but mostly in Los Angeles 
I better cut this out…this thread’s gettin’ a little ‘Mohgarr’ heavy methinks
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I originally read this book because I wanted to learn more about social queues and behaviors during bubbles.
It’s great for that, but it also documents traits of doom prophecies. Broad manias (optimistic and pessimistic) are consistent throughout our history, but more isolated doom prophecies commonly occur, usually in cult like groups.
The we’re all going to die scare?
Here’s your man. Good looking chap.
Literally, the same story being cycle in current time because humans suck at history.
I might have a loong list of techno panics going back…way back…and they aren’t too different from now.
Ya gonna have to be super smaht to convince people that have done the research.
And as you ALL know, we ran out of oil due to peak oil in 2001. Well…according to the experts. I label those two experts.
The future shows it’s cards face down. It’s highly unusual for a mass panic before an event to become a mass panic. Figuring out which threat is the greatest threat to our well being is not kiddie stuff.
But we all enjoy giving it a go.
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I’m stacked. This is my primary prep. Laugh all you want. Just as I was days before COVID hit. I had the botanical concoction for SARS COVid. Most of America was in denial. Can never happen to us.
One bad flu season and you won’t care about diesel or gold.
Since I steep the herbs in vodka, it serves a dual purpose. I might or might not be sucking some down right now.
I didn’t take no stinkin shots. Well not with a needle anyway.
Article on why betting on shortages has been a loosing proposition in history. Even with wars with Iran. Not the first time.
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Oil is abiotic. [not biological]
F. Wiilliam Engdahl’s book, Myths, Lies and Oil Wars
Zeroes in on the Rockefeller purposed myth.
Ironically, it was Stalin who…?
IE…D’d it! [ID it, idenified/also myths road side bomb]
[exploded the myth]
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Please don’t stop. I greatly enjoy your expressions of our like-minded sense of humor.
Unlike your messages, mine seem to stop threads in their tracks. 
Keep them coming, Mr. Mohgarr.
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Thanks for noticing me…
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“…all 50 governors in 1908”? Sloppy.
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Top 10 Wilderness Survival Items In The 18th Century
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Crude prices down in last two weeks. Now this… The experts are usually contra-signals.
Did they call the top?
An experts track record is the best metric of an expert.
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority. This is a very big and important announcement. Additionally, it must be understood, that Iran will not have a Nuclear Weapon! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP
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I just read the announcement on the lifting of western sanctions on Russian diesel exports.
One thing that was not given treatment or clarifications in Trump’s missive:
The Russian Federation still has it’s own internal export ban on diesel
There’s actually not even consensus that Russian refineries can ramp up sufficient supply to fulfill the export figures.
I think we have to hold off counting those ducks till they’re swimming in our pond.
[source: The Wire]
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@bitcrypt
It is NOT too late! There are certain ways of living you will have to adopt. The biggest influence you can emulate are The Amish channels; everything from how to build a proper fire that lasts all night, to cooking, to how to make and sleep in a bed without heat and stay warm, to planting and caring for even a few veggies.
Start with water, food and warmth. Don’t go for the freeze dried crap that you have to reconstitute, that you pay a small fortune for, look at canned goods, dried goods, powdered milk (if you have kids, esp.) etc.
I live in an apartment. If I can do it, you can do it.
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Fair.
Two month window a fair time line based on their call for a fuel shock in weeks? Two weeks and counting.
Preppers can’t loose. If nothing happens, you’ll have the resources to use.
Traders and investors can loose bigly on their analysis.
There is good fundamental analysis that suggests that oil has a long term bullish scenerio, not based on war, based on poor infrastructure, past liberal policies with all the green energy crap.
But if we again consider Babylon Bankers teachings on cycles and Kondrieff. A market event would take down commodities. As it did commodities at every single peak. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t recover. It means short term pain for investors.
He’s the goat. Few know who he is in our modern world. You’lll note his window 2025-2028. He wrote this back in 2016 along with the prediction of War, current political conditions etc…
But I’m leaning toward 2027 of his time line. If markets go down, so will commodities. Still bullish case to be made before the top of the cycle.
My calculations do suggest gold is ready to start moving up. Possibly one more fold back but some kind of low is in.
@bitcrypt
Keep it simple and here’s a place to start. IMO, it’s important to include the juice in various items for the sake of hydration. Of course, you won’t like or might not cook with all of these, but IT’S A START where food is concerned. Peruse through this channel and find what suits you. PLEASE don’t buy into the MRE hype; you won’t last long eating it. You and children will get ill. Takes a lot of drinking water to eleveate the constipation, etc.
I don’t know if you live in The U.S., in a house or apt, else, it would give a better idea of how best to suggest things.
A word about physical gold. There are laws going into effect that will utilize AI and TPTB will know who has what with regard to gold. They are esp. interested in those with $10K and over; even much more than that. I mention $10K because I knew people with gold when the price was much higher months ago and couldn’t sell it easily. The sellers very openly said their business depended upon buyers too and nobody was buying; everyone wanted to sell. Many big dealers on-line wouldn’t even buy less than $10K from someone, as the Eagle here and there was a waste of their time. Remember this… You won’t necessarily get the market price either, esp. if govt is breathing down their necks. The trap has been reset real hard this time. Not like Roosevelt’s day.
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Thanks for the limk!
[I’m sending this to my sisters.]
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Do you have a reference or link for the legislation? I am curious about the details and timing. Thank you.
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I will try to find them (more than one) when I can but if you go to IRS.gov and google, I bet it pops up.
Crude forecast that was issued in 2025 for 2026 Yeah a prediction made before the news
How’s it doing?
we’re in the place before the red line comes in before end of year and shows a collapse of price in 2027 like all commodities. In another words, between now and that cycle top, some news will come into push up and then some news will come in to push it down in less than 6 months. IF it continues to follow the Kondrieff cycle. Small details posted for those uninitiated.
You have to decide, for yourself, whether the narratives that are told on the video’s are the highest possible indicators of the future, or a cycle chart that has done before any of the politics, any of the wars that has nailed it so far this year.
I don’t know. Maybe anything can happen. But I’m not ignoring a model that consistently has good results. Perfect? Nahhh. Nothings perfect.
It says, we have one big squeeze coming before a price collapse. What news causes that squeeze? No idea. It doesn’t tell you the narrative. And the bloomberg all commodity index shows the same.
In the last 200 years, this cycle is uninterrupted. It’s never exactly the same.
Is the y axis the crude oil price?
Yes and no. These are primarily timing models based. While that is price scale, it is not a price forecast.
Composed of sine waves from past markets based on the rhythm that has worked over many years.
Big moves up or down happen when many cycles syncronize. The bigger the wave is an indication of time cycle syncronization. Big time and small time cycles arriving at the sametime.
The magnitude of the sine wave is reflective of the effect of multiple cycles occuring at the same time
Here is a clearer picture of a cycle forecast on the market. You can see the market follows the general rhythm, but the magnitude of the cycle (time) does not tell us how strong price will react uniformly.
So while the Y axis is the price of oil ytd, the size of the sine wave is NOT a price forecast and thus we need to have other tools to forecast price.
In the case of crude, it looks like we are in a wave four correction, with one more pop before something deflationary hits. Opposite of what everyone is expecting aka out of control Weimar inflation. But historically consistent with the past.
The cycle of RBOB Unleaded fuel is in a down trend right now.