Black Swan arising, or is it an Ingo Swann?

Hardly anyone ever “sees” the superphenomena directly and purely, so to speak. What IS actually seen are (1) the phenomena, PLUS (2) the concepts through which they have been filtered, with the sum being 3, the combined result of 1 + 2. In this sense, then, 1 + 2 = 3 whatever that may be. And 3 is more likely to be composed more of 2 than of 1"… (Ingo Swann)…

… so Direct Realism is not the case. This has been known since at least the time of the Pre-Socratics. I’m thinking that it is slightly more than likely that Ingo Swann et al. didn’t provide any solution(s). So … now what?

Chance is inherent in what you describe as “superphenomena” as it is in many other things. It is / can be problematic, to be sure, but it is also logically necessary.

Maybe a little progress on this issue is to be found in … The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by N. N. Taleb,

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