Hilary: Platform for SW Flooding and NW Acquisition of Smoke Aerosols

New patterns of air mass rotations, long thin cloud lines (thousands of miles) and abrupt, tightly formed direction changes have permeated satellite imagery the past year, really, and are always increasing in size and development speed. They have honed their craft. I haven’t posted about this because without video and an experienced eye (one who watches daily), most would dismiss it, much like my early posts about DEWs in Kansas, etc.

The weather event so far known as Hurricane Hilary (now a Tropical Storm) is so, so unusual folks. Setup and delivery of this manmade cyclone is unprecedented as a whole, but the bits and pieces used look very familiar.

Band 08 shows upper troposphere moisture level (NOAA West Full Disk Band 08). This is where jet streams used to live; now, it seems to be their air mass control board. Dark blue, yellow and orange are areas that “repel” moisture will push moisture-laden air masses away or said in other words, it sets a boundary. Have you wondered why Hilary’s western edge was so clearly defined and vertical?

The same can be said of the eastern side of Hiliary, but they didn’t have to amp up the temperature to yellow as the “heat dome” blue seemed enough to complete the wide channel of northward air mass flow. This confinement control is similar to the Lahaina Massacre setup, but with different mechanisms. Again, video (NOAA East Full Disk Band 08) helps one see all this.

Hilary will deliver flooding and catastrophic damage to Mexico, California, Nevada and Arizona for certain. I expect washed out interstates and numerous flash floods with debris flows. With those highways damaged, the number of escape routes east out of SoCal and Arizona becomes limited. Take out I-5 on the Grapevine and 101 in Santa Barbara to the north, well, the masses become trapped. Let’s also not forget burn areas from the last two years and the record snow fall and subsequent melt off.

The Hilary setup included a “charged” air mass AHEAD of it that apparently has not released or grown its water vapor. It has reached the voluminous wildfire smoke areas where it will likely mix with the soot for increased size of water vapor molecules as they nucleate. At present, this forerunner of Hilary has been directed east, away from the fires themselves (conveniently); all for some purpose.

Compounding all this are all the moist equatorial air masses that seem headed to the U.S. that could supply large atmospheric rivers.

I’ll write more later.

4 Likes

The link is to a mainstream source but some of the information might be of interest to you.

1 Like

So far, “Hilary” has brought local flooding to some cities, mud slides, flash floods in the deserts, washed out roadways and earthquakes. It isn’t over, but the massive flooding event I expected did not happen. So far, this is no Lahaina, and I am pleased to be wrong. But what else did we get?

As mentioned above, tropical moisture was brought in from the gulf and inserted ahead of Hilary. This atmospheric river (aka stream-of-water-vapor-aloft-that-does-not-rain) was rigidly channeled to the PacNorthWest where it mixed with smoke and then off to the East. I don’t believe any of those wildfires received any rain.

Keep in mind that smoke from the PacNorthWest fires had already traveled across the eastern Pacific and can be seen in the “pond scum” solar radiation management clouds.

More interesting to me is the smaller CCW rotation near San Francisco Bay Area which has a lot of smoke. “They” have gotten really good at spinning things at whim. Lightning maybe? I hope not.

On the national front, we have a large “heat dome” (dang, I hate using THEIR terms) surrounded by a long and charged atmospheric river (laden with smoke aerosols) that is being still being supplied moisture from Mexico. Understand that they can easily make towering thunderheads (yellow, red) out of any or all of those grey, blue and green air masses.

Not to be outdone, from the Atlantic there are multiple tropical storms (laden with Saharan dust) and PTC-9 in the hip pocket, the latter simmering in the Gulf, threatening Texas.

Hilary has left us with an unprecedented setup; can’t say I am too eager to see how they play it out. No one is safe.

Lightning has started 2:16 PM PST

3 Likes