The War of The Flea and the worry and risk of 2nd order effects - Venezuela and beyond. First thoughts

#1

Once read a book many years ago titled The War Of Flea by Taber. Should have been mandatory reading for MacNamara and LBJ, but alas no. It would now apeear that the Bolivarian Militia and Collectivos are now taking cotrol of the cities and towns barrio by barrio. The regular army is still “loyal” according to Min for Defence and Vice president. But given that Maduro was handed of by regular army they will probably not be trusted by the population now.

The central tenets of the book are why the population were issued automatic weapons by Maduro. So while US military may control and secure buildings and facilities, it is likley that Venezuela devolves in an emulation of the Iraqi style situation, and if more military are surged then it will become more like Vietnam.

It extends politics through armed conflict, armed civilians whose primary strength lies in their ties to the community, providing intelligence, recruits, and legitimacy.

The objective is not to defeat the enemy militarily but to create a “climate of collapse,” making the status quo unsustainable through prolonged disruption and erosion of political will in three phases.

Strategic defensive—build capacity, survive, and avoid major engagements.
Strategic stalemate—balance forces to prevent enemy victory.
Strategic offensive—seize initiative, erode the opponent’s base, and force collapse.

The Venezuelans and Cubans have done this before and will have external assistance as proxies in Venezuela and a resistance which may possibily be taken to the US itself, directly or by alliance with other proxies already in country ( e.g. Bidens surged millions of illegals)

So hopefully the third order effects do not become a reality like the Libyan style scenario right on the doorstep which would make for an instability and degree of chaos which lasts generationally. While the attack to rendition Maduro and wife, was planned well, once launched a war of any kind finds and follows its own riverbed in which to flow.

If such conditions were to evolve, then these would be a perfect excuse for digital survellance systems and digital id technology becoming mandatory.

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#2

… we should be clear that this was not “rendition” in the sense we would like. This was a simple kidnapping. I can not even imagine that Maduro would be water, food, sleep deprived or waterboarded. We need to begin to openly consider asymmetrical solution options outside the so-called judicial system and intelligence agencies.

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#3

An interesting progression from Vebezuela will be Iran. One of the objectives seems to be to attack/regime change Iran for Israel while at the same time disrupting another compnent of the Silk Road. I think you are right though, Maduro may have been much more compliant/complicit by the look of it as an exuse to leave the country based on some preagreed conditions. If this is the case things should settle down quickly in Venezuela, but once the population is aroused, never can tell what follows. I’d say within the next month or two something largescale will be directed at Iran. In which case Venezuelan oil becomes very important for obvious reasons. Oil price spikes and Trump can use that to reduce the US loans. The concern will be the 3rd order effects- retaliation by China. All in all not looking good economically in 26.

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#4

… Yep, this operation was way to shiny and happy. What we think we saw was, most likely, the result of a previously cut deal.

However, it does seem that at least one lesson was learned from The Gulf War … if one thinks about it for a moment this operation in Venezuela (without the Herculean effort we extended in The Gulf War) gave us as close to nothing as possible while at the same time depriving us of our paid for entertainment and spectacle.

see The Gulf War Did Not Take Place by Jean Baudrillard

“Brecht again: “As for the place not desired, there is something there and that’s disorder. As for the desired place, there is nothing there and that’s order.” The New World Order is made up of all these compensations and the fact that there is nothing rather than something, on the ground, on the screens, in our heads: consensus by deterrence. At the desired place (the GuIf, nothing took place, non-war. At the desired place (TV, information), nothing took place, no images, nothing but filler. Not much took place in all our heads either, and that too is in order. The fact that there was nothing at this or that desired place was harmoniously compensated for by the fact that there was nothing elsewhere either. In this manner, the global order unifies all the partial orders.” … from The Gulf War Did Not Take Place by Jean Baudrillard

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#5

Noting how oil facilities were left untouched. I think Bibi’s fingerprints are on this one for the disruption of the Silk Road so he can make Israel a critical hub on the competitor route and there’s cherry on top of Iranian regime change. And Trump is taking the silver and disrupting the CALA Silk route compenents beyond the interest of local governmental grifters.

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#6

It is well worth to check out Phil Godlewski’s take on all this! Things have been going on that we Normies know nothing about…as usual! :wink: