Originally published at: https://gizadeathstar.com/2021/09/tidbit-the-quad/
Apropos of today’s main blog, the “Quad” is in trouble, according to this article shared by B., because India is…
Hmmmm…respectfully Dr F I’m not convinced by the article as it makes some inaccurate statements and smacks of 50 cent Army type propaganda. For example:
1.“The Americans themselves take five years to build one ‘Virginia’ from the point of laying the keel to delivery to the US Navy! Such being the case, Australia’s fleet of nuclear submarines armed with ballistic missiles will need several decades to see the light of day.”
- First of type often takes this long. Currently the USN isn’t far from the ‘2 per year’ drumbeat scenario. Clearing the younger remaining LA class SSNs to Australia as loans actually frees up those yards and knocks down Vzglyad’s argument ’ the bottleneck of the project because of the existing crisis in American shipbuilding.’
-RAN ships will be armed with Block V Tomahawks (1500-2000km range) and Harpoons…not the ICBMs found on Columbia or Ohio class boats.
The first RAN ships will beleased boats and can be in the water fairly quickly-and yes the Osbourne ship yards can handle it. New boats by 2035, leased SSNs by 2026.
- “Chinese pundits envisage Canberra’s support to China in joining CPTPP in exchange for Beijing reopening its market to Australian products before the election next year. Unsurprisngly, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has called on the Biden Administration to “revoke the wrong decision” on AUKUS.”
-This comment does not take into account the widespread social, political, military and economic disdain for China in Australia at present. Australia is looking at blocking China from participating in the CPTPP and supporting Taiwan’s inclusion with Japan. Australia has been significantly diversifying its economy away from China over the past 2 years. That said, Australia will not acquiesce to Beijing’s ‘14 Australian sins’.
- “Make no mistake, France’s Indo-Pacific commitment will not weaken and it will step up efforts to build up a network of middle powers in the region, including India, outside the orbit of QUAD and AUKUS.”
-I bet they don’t. France’s military and economic presence in the area is dwarfed by Australia’s. Macron and co may be having a well opportunist bout of confected rage, but his defence leaders know they will most definitely continue working with the ADF.
- " Clearly, the decision on AUKUS is a hasty move by a besieged US president who took heavy battering lately on the foreign policy front. Beijing is taking it calmly>
-Lol. Nope. AUKUS has been about 18 months in the planning and so was the axing of the French sub deal. Beijing is doing everything but taking things calmly-they have become more bellicose, more irrational and just plain idiotic. The author does not know what he is talking about.
- " AUKUS has serious nuclear proliferation risks and violates the spirit of the NPT, as the US nuclear submarines are fuelled by HEU of above 90%, which is weapon-grade nuclear material. It undercuts the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty and ASEAN countries’ efforts to build a non-free zone in Southeast Asia — all in all, severely undermining regional peace and stability."
-Not really. The SPNFZ only applies to nuclear weapons and nuclear testing-not nuclear reactors. Having nuke boats doesn’t violate the ‘spirit of the NPT’ at all. Nuclear weapons are ILLEGAL in Australian law, so proliferation isn’t the issue. Besides, Indian authors really aren’t in a position to examine proliferation!
- " Washington has been desperately in need of some foreign-policy showpiece in the aftermath of the defeat and humiliating retreat from Afghanistan and it announced the AUKUS."
-Again not really. AUKUS was 18 months in the planning-well before Biden. Helpful perhaps, but not a causal agent.
- “But the US behaviour towards France, a major key NATO ally, a nuclear power and a permanent UN Security Council member, is something unprecedented, even Trump did not allow himself such boorish behaviour.”
- What boorish behaviour? True did beat the Europeans around regarding low defence GDP outputs and not ‘carry their share’. The US made a better offer-one that is incredibly unique. Tough luck France. Besides, how about the French form in ditching Mali and allowing Russian contractors to fill the void?
- " China’s Belt and Road Initiative remains the more compelling international vision than the “Indo-Pacific”. It has caught the imagination of the world, as is apparent from the big attendance at the biannual BRI summits in China. Basically, BRI is flexible and specific, while “Indo-Pacific” is ideological and other-worldly. It is not difficult to see why the QUAD has a scratchy record."
-Well…no. The BRI has taken a beating in the region. Other than Cambodia,Pakistan and …Kiribati, find IP countries who want in? Debt trap economics, coercion, high seas military confrontations…nope no one in the IP wants the BRI. The Quad doesn’t have a ‘scratchy record’ because IT DOESN’T HAVE A RECORD. It literally has only just become a ‘thing’ more than rhetoric.
- " Fundamentally, India has its own strategic interests, like the ASEAN countries, and is a stakeholder in the stability of the Asian continent."
-Yep. So being involved with Japan, US and Australia says what? A shared strategic interest! Australia has a lot more to do with ASEAN than India does.
- " Historically, multilateralism is a complex idea for Asian psyche, given their saga of national liberation from colonial rule in the last century and their trajectory of nation-building riveted on hard-won national sovereignty."
-What RUBBISH. This is straight from the CCP troll play book that we have seen in Australian articles and those from the IP region.
I think it is far too early to tell what will become of the QUAD. What is certain is that 3/4 of its members do have very close military ties and interests.