Winning or losing a military objective is not marked by an absolute line in the sand most times. Putin might capture Ukraine for a while but, all it takes is one stray missile, or some other mistake. China will not do squat to rush to Russia’s aid; are you kidding?
Putin waited too long. He should have gotten this all done in a week or less but, he didn’t want to come across as a “butcher of Ukrainians” & it cost him; he’s been painted as a brutal murderer anyway. Insurgents have now had 3+ weeks to set up against Russian forces & as the lady said, Putin will "crush Ukraine to a fine, fine ash.
Whether win or lose, to answer @bluenose question, Zelensky will be ousted.