Has AMERICA Already Lost The Iran War

https://unz.com/article/america-has-already-lost-the-iran-war/

About eleven paragraphs down,
“In short, Iran can send the sheiks BACK TO THE CAMEL AGE - and America won’t protect the.”

3 Likes

Is it about Iran or worldwide reset thru financial & resource turmoil. I presume the last, so highly succesfull.

3 Likes

Destroy analogue!
“BUILD BACK” DIGITALLY…
RULED by Algorithm.

3 Likes

Iran has not only Ju Jitsu like flipped the Regime Change initiative on US and Israel, but is going further now taking advantage for itself, the region and BRICS monetary functions to deliver a global financial reset “sans” the petrodollar. Schwab must writhing in envy. Trump has been suckered by Israel and trapped by Iran and its partners.

1 Like

Isn’t the reset also about eliminating hegemons? I think president Trump has done exceptional work and is expendable in the larger scemes of things.

2 Likes

Those that don’t subscribe to the “DARK ENLIGHTENMENT”?

1 Like

I doubt it, there are new hegemonic forces in play now, just they will be regionalised, multipolar ones. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyBGuATk5AE

The Regime-Change Aspects: A “House of Cards” Strategy That Collapsed The initial U.S./Israeli plan as classic decapitation—kill the Supreme Leader (and key IRGC figures) in the expectation that the Islamic Republic would implode like a “house of cards,” per Mossad chief David Barnea’s reported intelligence to the White House. Trump and Israeli leaders publicly embraced regime change early on, betting on internal uprising or total collapse.

It has failed because:

  • Iran’s unique “mosaic system” (decentralized, networked decision-making across IRGC commanders, revolutionary institutions, and the Supreme National Security Council) activated within hours. Leadership “went dark” but retained functionality; attacks on Gulf bases continued immediately.

  • The new de-facto leadership is now dominated by former IRGC commanders (hardliners with military mindsets), not clerics or the sidelined president (Pezeshkian has no role in foreign/defense policy under the constitution). This makes the system more resilient to further assassinations, not less.

  • No popular revolt materialized. Instead, the regime has doubled down on repression (mass arrests, executions) while maintaining missile/drone launches.

Trump’s repeated claims today (and in recent weeks) of a “new and more reasonable regime,” “regime change already happened,” and “very good negotiations” with it are, in Alastair Crooke’s view, illusory or deliberate market manipulation. There are no direct talks—only occasional messages via third parties (Egypt, Qatar, Pakistan) that Iran often ignores or rejects outright. Iran’s 15-point demands (full end to hostilities, reparations, recognition of its Hormuz sovereignty) are maximalist and non-negotiable in the current environment.

Current U.S./Israeli pivot:
Regime of Iran change is now “off the table.” The fallback goal is tactical—seizing or neutralizing Kharg Island (“Card Island,” Iran’s main oil export terminal) to claim some form of “victory” and reopen Hormuz on U.S. terms. Israeli media and U.S. special-operations mobilization point to this. Crooke notes this reflects desperation: the IDF is at “breaking point” (heavy losses in Lebanon, munitions rationing, public exhaustion), and bombing campaigns have not destroyed Iran’s dispersed, mountain-hardened missile infrastructure (e.g., 800m-deep granite tunnels with rail-mobile launchers).

The discussion and critique ties back to the opening monologue on preemptive war and Jeffersonian skepticism of government overreach: this was another undeclared, intelligence-driven escalation sold as quick and clean, now bogged down with mounting strategic costs.

Iranian Strategic Aspects:
Seizing a Historic Opportunity the core argument—counterintuitive on the surface—is that Iran views the war not as existential threat but as a long-awaited strategic opening to invert the entire post-1970s order in West Asia.Historical context Crooke provides:

  • Pre-1979, Iran was the region’s dominant power (large, rich, intellectually vibrant).

  • Post-1979 U.S. policy deliberately elevated Gulf Sunni monarchs/sheikhs, contained Iran via sanctions/siege, and created the petrodollar system (Gulf oil revenues recycled into U.S. assets after the 1973-74 price shocks). This underpinned dollar hegemony and U.S. financialization at the expense of America’s real economy.

Iran’s current playbook discussed:

  • Control the chokepoints: Iran now enforces a de-facto “toll booth” regime in the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil exports) and influences Red Sea traffic. Passage requires proof of payment in non-dollar currencies (e.g., yuan) and non-antagonistic intent. This directly challenges U.S. control over oil pricing and volume, which has been a pillar of American financial power since 1973.

  • Geopolitical inversion: Expel U.S. military/financial infrastructure from the Gulf. Turn the tables on the “small shakedoms” by forcing them to recalibrate (they remain U.S.-beholden but vulnerable to oil-flow disruptions).

  • No compromise: Iran rejects any return to a “Gaza-style cage” (new JCPOA-style restrictions, isolation, tariffs). Alaistair Crooke compares it to asking Hamas to accept permanent containment—politically impossible now that Iran believes it holds the stronger cards.

  • Confidence in resilience: Mountain silos, rail-mobile missiles, proxy depth, and the mosaic system mean conventional bombing (thousands of sorties) yields limited results. Civilian infrastructure strikes (schools, hospitals, energy) are seen as ineffective theater or war crimes, but not decisive.

Alastair Crooke is skeptical that U.S. escalation (carpet-bombing Tehran, special-forces raids for enriched uranium, Kharg seizure) can reverse this. He notes Trump himself once called loss of dollar hegemony “equivalent to losing a major war”—precisely the risk if Iran succeeds in pricing oil outside the dollar system.

1 Like

This is the military blowback effect of engaging in the attacks on Iran with Israel, there is huge loss of projection of power ongoing and which might yet be to come. This is why the Pentagon advised Trump not to proceed in attacking Iran with Israel.

US military leave Iraq

Turkey protests to have US bases returned and forces to leave the country
https://x.com/sahouraxo/status/2038296733067661321?s=20

German politicians call for US forces to leave

GCC US bases no longer fully serviceable

1 Like

The people of Dubai don’t like the Flintstones…but the people of Abu Dhabi do…

4 Likes

… Yes, I believe the word you are looking for is Pyrrhic.

… “And while I am talking to you mothers and fathers, I give you one more assurance. I have said this before, but I shall say it again and again: Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars”. - F. Roosevelt

… “Mass deportations, millions and millions and no new wars” - D. Trump

They ALWAYS Lie. Do not believe a single word any politician utters, including “a”, “and”, and “the”. There is no longer any trust molecule to be had.

… absolutely, the vast majority of US forces should be removed.

3 Likes

Completely different take by Brian Giesbrecht (a retired Canadian provincial court judge), who mentions “TACO” and “FAFO” strategies and concludes: “The truth is that no one knows what will happen next in this war…”

1 Like

… if there was any doubt before, there is no doubt now. We achieved NONE of our stated goals and Iran now has complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and they still have their enriched uranium. I’m quite sure all of their underground production facilities for ballistic missiles and drones are still hard at work. Iran obviously still has enough of a Navy to enforce control over the Strait. So the answer to your question is Yes, we have lost yet another “war”. The word “War” no longer works. We must find another word.

3 Likes

Agree.And we will do what we must…anyway.
What will that change?..naming events with new words?
…oh that is right nothing…

War profiteering works.

… language both affects and effects perception. see Walker Percy and Marshall McLuhan on the phenomenon of overuse of language.
… again a pretty good summary from Google, however it is always best to read the original writings.

  • Loss of Meaning (Semantic Satiation): When you say “glass” repeatedly, the neural pathway that connects the sound “g-l-a-s-s” to the physical object in your hand becomes fatigued, turning it into meaningless noise.
  • The Problem of “Looking At” vs. “Looking Through”: Percy suggests that language works best when we look through it to the world. When we look at a word too closely—saying it repeatedly—we destroy the “naming act” that connects us to the thing itself.
  • The “Worn Out” Phenomenon: Percy often noted that words, symbols, and even everyday experiences become “worn out” by over-use and familiarity, losing their power to convey reality.

McLuhan thought language to be a primordial “technology” that was integral to consciousness in a variety of ways.

What might change as a result of the use of different language is a great question to ask. What might change is the way in which we as individuals understand the realities (the states of affairs as we find them in the World - this is important is that our assessment of those states of affairs is what ultimately determine our beliefs - our beliefs about those states of affairs [Truth or Falsity] in turn determine our behaviors - we do not act upon those beliefs that we have determined to be False). Even in the many cases of those who receive Darwin Awards they acted on states of affairs in the World that, to the best of their ability at the time, they believed to be true) with which we are confronted. What might change? - our behavior in the World.

2 Likes

…ahmm…yes…and the second,or third or fourth…or whatever lie from the begining…that is…“free will”…namely…

…as and if there was ‘begining’…and as if there will be or is ‘end’…

A win for Israel no doubt. All hardliners assassinated. Infrastructure in Iran hit hard. All of these secret weapons they bragged about came to nothing. Universities demolished, leaving only ‘reformists’ running Iran.

Israel remains relatively unscathed, with what they carried out in Lebanon today, I wish nothing but destruction upon them.

1 Like

…but maybe not released,unleashed yet…

I think it is odd that most are leaving out the reality that as I type this, I am more than sure that there are thousands of anti-IRGC types within Iran that are more than likely being armed to the teeth to overthrow the IRGC. Given that Trump was able to somehow “reign in” ISIS (remember them?), I am sure that a similar program has already started and is probably near to operational as the IRGC is well loathed in Iran. The only reason the earlier revolts did not work out is Iranians citizens are not allowed to own firearms. Now, I am fairly positive that each hour more and more Iranians are being armed. And they are more than likely being armed with weapons superior to the IRGC.